The March 2 governorship election in Ogun State will go down in history as the toughest since the return to civil rule in 1999. The major parties – the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) – are embroiled in internal crises that may mar their chances at the election. Correspondent ERNEST NWOKOLO takes stock of the squabbles within the two platforms and how the candidates in the race stand.
BARELY three weeks to the presidential and the National Assembly elections and six weeks to the governorship and the House of Assembly polls in Ogun State, the prospects of the main contenders in the race are not certain. The contest has been thrown open, because of the internal crises rocking the two major parties.
The ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) is going into the election as a divided house, with Governor Ibikunle Amosun’s preferred governorship candidate, Adekunle Akinlade, and his supporters jumping ship into a hurriedly formed political party, the Allied Peoples’ Movement (APM).
The ruling party and its splinter group are following the footsteps of the former ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), which participated the 2011 general elections in a similar manner. The then Governor Gbenga Daniel’s preferred candidate, Gboyega Isiaka, and his supporters took part in the contest in the relatively unknown Peoples Party of Nigeria (PPN). The preferred candidate of the then President Olusegun Obasanjo, Gen. Adetunji Olurin (retd), and their supporters stayed in the fold. At the end of the day, this development paved the way for Amosun and his party, the then Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), which is part of the APC today, to win the election.
The PDP is yet to recover from that political bungling, as it has not been able to find its rhythm since then. It is also heading into the 2019 election divided. The PDP has two main factions and two governorship candidates for the March 2 election – Oladipupo Adebutu and Senator Buruji Kashamu.
Though the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) recognises Kashamu as the party’s flag bearer, the tussle to determine the authentic candidate of the party is still raging in court. This will no doubt affect the fortunes of the party in the forthcoming election.
Daniel is yet to launch himself back into much political reckoning ever since. Though Isiaka had won the governorship primary conducted for the party at the MKO Stadium, Kuto, Abeokuta, by representatives of the PDP National Working Committee (NWC), he was denied the ticket. Gen. Olurin, who was the product of a parallel primary conducted at the Olusegun Obasanjo Presidential Library, got the governorship ticket with the backing of the NWC.
To protest against the injustice meted out to him and his protégé, Daniel instructed his supporters to defect to the PPN to pursue their political ambitions. He stayed put in the PDP, drumming for PPN from the rear.
A similar scenario is playing out today in the APC. The crisis in the APC is not unconnected to the party primary, which took place late last year. Amosun’s protégé, Akinlade, emerged through a consensus that shut out aspirants, such as Senator Gbenga Kaka (Ogun East), Otunba Bimbo Ashiru (Ogun East), Prince Dapo Abiodun (Ogun East), Jimi Lawal (Ogun East) and Abayomi Hunye (Ogun West) among others, who were also locked in the battle for the same ticket.
In the run up to last year’s party primaries, former Governor Segun Osoba deployed suaveness, subterfuge, tact and diplomacy to ensure that whoever emerged the party’s flag bearer followed the prescribed guidelines.
This position put Osoba on a collision course with Amosun. This is not the first time both party leaders have clashed over the running of the party. It happened during the last general elections in 2014/2015, when the issue of who should get what ticket for various elective offices surfaced. Amosun who had allegedly cornered the party structure, by elbowing Osoba and his camp out of their political house and, in frustration, they moved their numbers to the Social Democratic Party (SDP), where they contested the 2015 general elections and lost. But, the governor and his team won about 96 per cent of the seats.
Osoba and his camp were to return later after the reconciliation between the two camps. What happened in 2014/2015 was about to repeat itself prior to last year’s APC primaries, but since Osoba and his group had experienced the disadvantages of being evicted from the party, they were determined to prevent this from happening a second time. They resolved to acquit themselves in a manner that would enable them to stay within the fold and battle the ‘bull’ from the inside.
The succession issue within the APC reached a disturbing dimension in October last year, when the governor announced that the list of 40 candidates of the APC for the 2019 elective positions has already been drawn. He dared whoever that was not comfortable with it to meet him and his team on the day of direct primary.
Amosun said the party elders were aware of the selected 40 candidates. The list included his preferred governorship candidate, Akinlade, and his running mate, Mrs Peju Adebajo, who is the Commissioner for Agriculture in the governor’s cabinet. Governor Amosun added that the candidates were derived from a consensus method allowed by the constitution of the party. Thereafter, he warned that “nobody should take Ogun people for granted or fools”.
Not done, he proceeded to declare: “By May 29, 2019, Akinlade will be our governor. We will have a landslide victory in the coming elections.”
Initial efforts to resolve it through direct primary for all sides and aspirants suffered many setbacks. By early November, it was obvious that there were no more meeting points between the governor and his loyalists and that of the camp loyal to Osoba. This culminated in the declaration of Akinlade as the governorship candidate of the party on November 3, by the state chapter of APC, following a separate primary it conducted. After conducting its own primary, the panel mandated by the NWC for the exercise declared Prince Dapo Abiodun as the candidate of the party. The panel was headed by Muhammad Indabawa.
Today, the die is cast. The 2011 political scenario is set to repeat itself and the APC would be the loser, because the party’s votes would be shared with the APM during the governorship election.
Akinlade is passionate about governing Ogun State. He has promised to lift many out of poverty, develop rural areas, enhance the revenue base of the state and sustain the legacies of the Amosun administration. He has age, bobbling energy of a youth and intelligence on his side. His legislative experience and stint as Special Adviser to Amosun on taxation has sort of prepared him for the office. But, coming from Ago Sasa, in Ipokia, a minority group has not endeared him to many who feel the minority should not be allowed to lord it over the majority.
Besides, the fact that he is being imposed on the people by Governor Amosun has not helped his quest. Many observers see this development as attempt by the governor to secure a third term by proxy. His perceived unimpressive representation of Yewa South and Ipokia Federal Constituency at the National Assembly has also not helped his case.
But, the governor is relying on his ruggedness, huge financial war chest, support from various transport unions, achievements and perceived firm grip on Ogun Central, which is generally seen as a major decider of the direction where the pendulum swings in every governorship election in the state, as the veritable ‘enablers’ to deliver APM and Akinlade in March.
Governor Amosun is also deploying the machinery of state to give Akinlade an edge in the contest ahead of other candidates. This includes using the state signage agency to deny other candidates choice places to erect campaign billboards or paste posters. Amosun is also accused of undermining the chances of the APC governorship candidate, by openly declaring he would not work for him.
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